Oh shit, they’ve actually captured the area and are holding it? That’s pretty significant! If they can keep this up, then maybe they can force Russia to concede? …Though any russian deal to end the war obviously won’t be honoured, which does make it a bit of a conundrum. Still, this is a good thing.
Russia’s border defense turned out to be mostly conscripts who got the fuck out of the way and/or surrendered the minute the fighting got remotely serious. And behind them is a whole lot of nothing until they hit the secondary lines which are, one would assume, a little more solid and based on natural obstacles like rivers and cities.
The contract soldiers are better, but they’re also on the frontline.
That guy was such a moron. Once you start something like that, you’d best see it through or die trying (rather than die a short time later on other people’s terms).
That’s the kind of military plan hitler would order after a bit too much meth, to get to Rostov Ukraine would need to go hundreds of miles behind enemy lines with no logistics
Hitler also used the largest invasion force in history (3.8 million troops, vs 3 million for the Nazi invasion of France or 2 million for the allied invasion France). And still failed so badly he lost the entire war.
Though it is hard to compare them because the contexts are so different. Russia isn’t as motivated this time as USSR was in the 1940s.
There’s no way they realistically hold or capture any of this. They just don’t have the logistics. But it’s an amazing opportunity to create a dilemma for Russia. They either 1) ignore it and let Ukrainian forces rampage around in Russian territory unopposed or 2) they redeploy forces from the front to defend Russian territory.
The Ukrainian forces should stay nimble either way, and retreat without too big a fight back to their own territory in the latter case, hopefully having caused enough of a diversion for a counteroffensive where they need it.
To add to that, on a map it all looks small, so you can imagine: go here, get there. But to actually “cross the front in the opposite direction into Donetsk region” they would need to cover about 300 km - quick, unprotected and without any logistical support, or slow but sure, but this is what they might plan anyway. They will probably try to widen the gap and dismantle the border defences
There’s an interesting possibility 3 …. Not that I have any idea about what is realistic in this war, but what if the goal is actual fighting? The active front is dig in and fatal to anything that moves: advancing is next to impossible. However western weapons were meant for speed, maneuverability. What if they draw Russia out to a fight on Western terms?
They could probably pull some gorilla attacks off behind their lines, but there’s no way they have the logistics to do a full assault on the rear. The best option would probably be to harass Russian supply lines.
Last I checked it looked like they had breached some major lines of defence, which means they may be past the worst of minefields etc. If they have room to manoeuvre for real by the time the russians send more forces the russians are going to have a real bad time trying to respond to this.
I strongly believe that Russia is preparing a more serious response. They just were not prepared for this, so didn’t have defenses in place. Better to retreat and cede some territory than wasting troops in a losing battle. Since their land is so large, they can still come back later and reconquer.
Also, Ukraine can’t use that many troops to actually fortify the region, given that they are also under heavy pressure at the more southern fronts.
And, 130 square miles is tiny compared to all the territory that Russia got so far.
Well, I believe the biggest win about this is for morale. Russians get scared because the war is now in their country, and Ukrainians get a buffer zone.
Yeah, I assume this is a dual purpose morale booster and demoralizerm Ukraine shows that Russias defenses are a paper tiger because they relied on threats and it will force Russia to respond with troops, either by pulling from the front lines or reinforcements. Either way it moves the fighting to Russian land and that will demoralize support in Russia.
Plus they can disrupt more supply lines and war manufacturing locations by going around the border defenses. They don’t even need to hold ground, just be a thorn in Russia’s side.
Also, Putin may need to divert resources from Ukraine and halt advances there earlier than intended.
Of course, if Putin drops a tactical nuke inside of Russia’s internationally-recognized boarders, will the world care? And if so, how much? Could backfire on Ukraine a bit in the short-term.
Oh shit, they’ve actually captured the area and are holding it? That’s pretty significant! If they can keep this up, then maybe they can force Russia to concede? …Though any russian deal to end the war obviously won’t be honoured, which does make it a bit of a conundrum. Still, this is a good thing.
Ukraine is not dug in, but it definitely seems like Russia’s front line around Kursk is collapsing, and Ukraine has the initiative here.
Russia’s border defense turned out to be mostly conscripts who got the fuck out of the way and/or surrendered the minute the fighting got remotely serious. And behind them is a whole lot of nothing until they hit the secondary lines which are, one would assume, a little more solid and based on natural obstacles like rivers and cities.
The contract soldiers are better, but they’re also on the frontline.
So basically the same quality defenses that rolled over when the Wagner guy started his march to Moscow…
That guy was such a moron. Once you start something like that, you’d best see it through or die trying (rather than die a short time later on other people’s terms).
So what about going around the rear and attacking Donbass from the russian side? I have no further knowledge, just spitballing here
That’s the kind of military plan hitler would order after a bit too much meth, to get to Rostov Ukraine would need to go hundreds of miles behind enemy lines with no logistics
Hitler also used the largest invasion force in history (3.8 million troops, vs 3 million for the Nazi invasion of France or 2 million for the allied invasion France). And still failed so badly he lost the entire war.
Though it is hard to compare them because the contexts are so different. Russia isn’t as motivated this time as USSR was in the 1940s.
There’s no way they realistically hold or capture any of this. They just don’t have the logistics. But it’s an amazing opportunity to create a dilemma for Russia. They either 1) ignore it and let Ukrainian forces rampage around in Russian territory unopposed or 2) they redeploy forces from the front to defend Russian territory.
The Ukrainian forces should stay nimble either way, and retreat without too big a fight back to their own territory in the latter case, hopefully having caused enough of a diversion for a counteroffensive where they need it.
To add to that, on a map it all looks small, so you can imagine: go here, get there. But to actually “cross the front in the opposite direction into Donetsk region” they would need to cover about 300 km - quick, unprotected and without any logistical support, or slow but sure, but this is what they might plan anyway. They will probably try to widen the gap and dismantle the border defences
There’s an interesting possibility 3 …. Not that I have any idea about what is realistic in this war, but what if the goal is actual fighting? The active front is dig in and fatal to anything that moves: advancing is next to impossible. However western weapons were meant for speed, maneuverability. What if they draw Russia out to a fight on Western terms?
They could probably pull some gorilla attacks off behind their lines, but there’s no way they have the logistics to do a full assault on the rear. The best option would probably be to harass Russian supply lines.
Flanking attacks snowball when you collapse the fortified lines and link up with your own forward deployed troops.
Who said that there weren’t any wise people in the Russian army?
Last I checked it looked like they had breached some major lines of defence, which means they may be past the worst of minefields etc. If they have room to manoeuvre for real by the time the russians send more forces the russians are going to have a real bad time trying to respond to this.
I strongly believe that Russia is preparing a more serious response. They just were not prepared for this, so didn’t have defenses in place. Better to retreat and cede some territory than wasting troops in a losing battle. Since their land is so large, they can still come back later and reconquer.
Also, Ukraine can’t use that many troops to actually fortify the region, given that they are also under heavy pressure at the more southern fronts.
And, 130 square miles is tiny compared to all the territory that Russia got so far.
Well, I believe the biggest win about this is for morale. Russians get scared because the war is now in their country, and Ukrainians get a buffer zone.
Yeah, I assume this is a dual purpose morale booster and demoralizerm Ukraine shows that Russias defenses are a paper tiger because they relied on threats and it will force Russia to respond with troops, either by pulling from the front lines or reinforcements. Either way it moves the fighting to Russian land and that will demoralize support in Russia.
Plus they can disrupt more supply lines and war manufacturing locations by going around the border defenses. They don’t even need to hold ground, just be a thorn in Russia’s side.
Also, Putin may need to divert resources from Ukraine and halt advances there earlier than intended.
Of course, if Putin drops a tactical nuke inside of Russia’s internationally-recognized boarders, will the world care? And if so, how much? Could backfire on Ukraine a bit in the short-term.
Yes, they will care about nuclear fallout blowing across Europe at a minimum.
I believe any live use of a nuclear weapon would result in near universal sanctioning, including by Beijing