They buy weapons primarily from India and France. The former is eager to do so because Pakistan is buddies with Azerbaijan and Turkey. France because they have a large Armenian diaspora and they are also looking to counter Turkey because they often finds themselves at odds over ex. what Libyan faction to support and that sort of thing. Neither are really able to access Armenia nor Azerbaijan to actually support the former if there were to be a war though so weapons is the extent of it.

Only four countries border the two so at least one of these has to be on fully board to get something more solid than that; Georgia, Iran, Russia, and Turkey.

Georgia prefers to be neutral because it has enough problems with being partially Russia/separatist occupied and doesn’t need any more issues with neighbors. If anything it was leaning towards Azerbaijan because it preferred the concept of territorial integrity due to the aforementioned separatist issue which were justified on similar grounds as NK, and it benefited as the corridor for trade between Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Iran initially was quite excited when Azerbaijan became independent and ejected the old guard communist Mutallibov, because it hoped to add what on paper looks like a mostly Shia country to its Islamic Revolution. However the opposition guy who was elected was Elchibey, an idealistic pro-West pan-Turkic secular guy who wanted to free southern Azerbaijan from Iran and befriend Turkey… so, Iran backed Armenia instead. Ironically this was at the same time Turkey was led by probably the least Pan-Turkic guy in its modern history who famously demurred saying, “They are Shia, we are Sunni, let Iran help them.” Elchibey got couped before too long since Russia isn’t partial to guys like that but all the leaders since have been very aggressively secular guys who take a more heavy-handed approach to suspected Iranian religious influence, as documented on the Wikileaks cables extensively quoting the junior Aliyev on the topic. So Iran has been locked into preferring Armenia, but Armenia couldn’t get that intimately close to Iran because Iran is heavily sanctioned by the West and Armenia needs access to the western diaspora which would be imperiled by developing relations too closely with airan. It will be interesting to see how this develops with the emerging blocks in the Middle East and the war in Iran… if sanctions on Iran are weakened, they may grow closer. But, remember how Armenia was being supported by India and France to counter Turkey? The main block emerging against Turkey (as well as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, Qatar & their dependents) is composed of Greece, the UAE, India, Ethiopia, Israel and their dependents. They are trying to be sweet with Armenia lately, ex. the UAE just cut an economic deal with Armenia and Israel is just now proposing to recognize the Armenian genocide. Probably takes a lot more than that for Israel because Armenians are not very impressed with the handling of the Armenian quarter in Jerusalem nor with Israel’s consistent past support for Azerbaijan as both have been strongly anti-Iran. But, if those emerging blocks become more of a “you’re with me or against me” deal, Armenia being friendly with the countries Israel is friendly with could imperil their relations with Iran, while Azerbaijan’s buddies in the Turkish leaning block have been consistently trying to hammer out a peace which could make its Iranian relations improve. Plus the Aras corridor for transit between Turkey and Azerbaijan via Iran may be viable if the US no longer exerts huge pressure against having transit through sanctioned Iran. Anyway I think it’s notable that while the UAE got absolutely hammered, Azerbaijan got like one shot fired at it and Iran promptly said it wasn’t intentional after Azerbaijan bristled at it.

Turkey is of course Azerbaijan aligned now, though interestingly under Turgut Ozal it was initially surprisingly neutral in the conflict between the two. Even sent many many tons of grain as humanitarian aid to Armenia when they were suffering from the war cutting off their usual supply lines from Azerbaijan, while Elchibey begged for and did not receive the help of four helicopters for evacuating citizens. Ozal wanted no problems with neighbors and to arrive at a peaceful solution to the war, and for a full settlement with Armenians even controversially floated giving some land and recognizing the genocide. But, as Armenia pushed further and further into Azerbaijan the rhetoric grew frostier with more saber rattling. At about the same time Ozal suddenly died (popularly thought to be assassinated for the upcoming negotiations with the PKK), that was the point Turkey started its decades long blockade of Armenia. In some respects (such as with regard to religion) Ozal is seen as a predecessor of Erdogan, and it is clear from Wikileaks cables that there was significant friction initially between Erdogan and the junior Aliyev. But by now they’ve been working together for years so that’s all been smoothed over and their cooperation is quite popular between their people. Anyway clearly Armenia can’t ally Turkey against Azerbaijan as it stands now.

Russia… is interesting. It definitely pingpongs back and forth between supporting either side depending on what serves its interests. At independence of both (though it’s been going on since well before then) it first recoiled from Azerbaijan because they ousted the old guard Mutallibov and elected Elchibey. Disgruntled general Huseynov just so happened to get access to the weapons of the departing Russian 104th Airborne Division and turned back from the front to march on the capital, meanwhile leaving the backdoor wide open for Armenia’s summer offensive to start and pick up momentum that couldn’t be stopped even after the coup succeeded and the forces were turned back around. The senior Aliyev signed the Contract of the Century to allow western businesses to invest in the petroindustry of Azerbaijan (previously entirely routed through Russia) and, like clockwork, that Huseynov guy launched another coup to put a stop to it. That coup failed though, so he fled to Russia and hid there before he was traded back in exchange for exploitation rights to an oil field. The Aliyevs began a strategy of developing the military and diversifying their economy out from under Russia while still publically glazing the country. Meanwhile Armenia coasted on under the “Karabakh clan” in more or less comfortable security arrangements but with mounting public dissatisfaction until they were eventually ousted in the Velvet Revolution… whereupon suddenly Russia wasn’t so friendly anymore and just looked on while Aliyev seized the chance after it became clear that the new Armenian government also did not want to negotiate on territory. Russia has made quite a lot of attempts to prop up opposition or do coups against Armenia ever since but I guess by now people are wise to it and smell through each time despite the many shots on goal. The Pro-Russia group believe that their security still lies with Russia but others are suspicious that Russia wants to just make them a part of Russia again.