• 28 Posts
  • 29 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 17th, 2023

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  • It does depend on how much people just ‘go labour’ because thats the ‘not tory’ vote, and how many look at their constituency and see Lib Dems in second, Labour can’t actually fight everywhere with ground game, and in many places they won’t really want to mand Lib Dems can and will do.

    I haven’t played with the tactical voting bit of Electoral Calculus mostly because it is a nationwide value and the regions will differ so much in who they vote if they are voting ‘not tory’. Wales and North go Labour far more just as a baseline, East, South and South-West go Lib Dem more but not in cities, London does Labour, Lib Dem and Green in different ratios depending on borough.

    It’s all a bit of a fun nightmare to try that’s also a guess and there’s no public tools (I know of) to try it even if you wanted to, which I kinda do; as any level of tactical voting hammers the Tories even more than these predictions and that’s always fun to see.



  • I think whats worse is, looking at and putting in the regional info from their data table, other than the Wales Green party numbers…this one actually feels right, loads of other polls the Scotland numbers have been all over the place, low numbers of people and odd % turning up, but this one doesn’t have anything glaring out at me that’s horrifically and clearly sampling error, even Flavible’s more uniform and conservative model is absolutely brutal at these numbers, and these numbers are what, 1-2% up or down from the average over the last week or so.

    This is BEFORE we have an election campaign and Purdah, we know Rishi isn’t the greatest campaigner and he clearly doesn’t like questions, PMQs or being questioned and that all thats going to happen to him for WEEKS during the election.

    Dare we start to hope?














  • Flavible:

    Party Pred % Pred Seats
    CON 🌳 22.0% 95
    LAB 🌹 47.0% 453
    LD 🔶 9.0% 43
    REFUK ➡️ 9.0% 0
    Green 🌍 7.0% 1
    SNP 🎗️ 3% 33
    PC 💮 0.5% 3

    Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’) *updated with Scotland as full tables are available:

    Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
    CON 🌳 44.7% 375 22.0% 0 313 -313 63
    LAB 🌹 33.0% 198 47.0% 328 0 +328 525
    LIB 🔶 11.8% 8 9% 12 0 +12 20
    Reform ➡️ 2.1% 0 9% 0 0 +0 0
    Green 🌍 2.8% 1 7% 0 0 +0 1
    SNP 🎗️ 4.0% 48 3.2% 3 31 -28 20
    PlaidC 💮 0.5% 2 0.4% 1 1 +0 2
    Other ⬜️ 1.1% 0 2.3% 1 0 +1 1
    N.Ire ⬜️ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

    Scotland EC Break-Down 👀

    Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
    13% 36% 9% 2% 5% 33%

    PrincipleFish

    [Broad Region breakdown used here]



  • Stealing my self appointed job!!

    Flavible:

    Party Pred % Pred Seats
    CON 🌳 26.0% 156
    LAB 🌹 47.0% 402
    LD 🔶 10.0% 35
    REFUK ➡️ 6.0% 0
    Green 🌍 5.0% 1
    SNP 🎗️ 3% 31
    PC 💮 0.5% 3

    Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’):

    Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
    CON 🌳 44.7% 376 26.0% 1 282 -281 95
    LAB 🌹 33.0% 197 47.0% 293 0 +293 490
    LIB 🔶 11.8% 8 10% 10 0 +10 18
    Reform ➡️ 2.1% 0 6% 0 0 +0 0
    Green 🌍 2.8% 1 5% 0 0 +0 1
    SNP 🎗️ 4.0% 48 3.5% 0 23 -23 25
    PlaidC 💮 0.5% 2 0.4% 1 1 +0 2
    Other ⬜️ 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 1
    N.Ire ⬜️ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

    That Con gain is Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey ‘from SNP’ but is a new seat for 2023.