🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨

Labour lead is twenty-three percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.

Con 25% (+1)

Lab 48% (+1)

Lib Dem 10% (-2)

Other 17% (+1)

Fieldwork: 29th June - 3rd July 2023 Sample: 1,507 GB adults (Changes from 23rd - 26th June 2023)

  • that_ginger_one@feddit.ukOP
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    8
    ·
    edit-2
    1 year ago

    Flavible:

    Party Pred % Pred Seats
    CON 25.0% 132
    LAB 48.0% 403
    LD 10.0% 36
    REFUK 5.0% 0
    Green 5.0% 1
    SNP 4% 53
    PC 0.5% 3

    Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries’):

    Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
    CON 44.7% 375 25.0% 0 270 -311 64
    LAB 33.0% 198 48.0% 297 0 +297 495
    LIB 11.8% 8 10% 9 2 +7 15
    Reform 2.1% 0 5% 0 0 +0 0
    Green 2.8% 1 5% 0 0 +0 1
    SNP 4.0% 48 4.6% 6 0 +6 54
    PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
    Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0
    N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

    Scotland EC Break-Down

    Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
    21% 26% 2% 0% 2% 47%
    • This one just feels wrong with the scotland numbers

    PrincipleFish

    • Deltapoll give easy access to their regions breakdown so I also put this one through the principlefish election predictor:

    • Syldon@feddit.uk
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      7
      ·
      1 year ago

      More would vote green if we had a PR voting system. The same goes for LD. The interesting part for me would be how protest votes either decline or rise. With PR every vote counts. People are happy to throw a protest vote in when it doesn’t matter due to FPTP.

      • that_ginger_one@feddit.ukOP
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        2
        ·
        1 year ago

        Of polls recently, past week or so, this one has both Green and REF on less than the others I remember. 7% & 8% shuffling between them.

        But those polls had Lab lower than 48% so could be a Deltapoll thing, weighting etc.

        I will be interested in the true GE numbers they get, will REF get Con protest votes if the boomers still vote in the same numbers as usual (almost all REF support was 55+) and will Greens regress back to 2-3% because the plurality of their vote goes tactical…

        It’s a joke that FPTP turns all these parties into a joke.

        • Syldon@feddit.uk
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          1
          arrow-down
          2
          ·
          edit-2
          1 year ago

          In FPTP people vote to block who they do not want, not what they desire. It is a very regressive system that does not promote good policies. There are no good arguments for FPTP anymore. We are enduring the most right wing government in our history. Worse still is that if the Tories did not win in 2019, the alternative would have been an ultra far left government.

      • that_ginger_one@feddit.ukOP
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        1
        ·
        1 year ago

        I’m actually super sceptical of the Scotland only numbers in the poll, I expect fewer SNP seats overall as a hunch. But the LibDem numbers they have for Scotland I flat out don’t believe.

        Polling error, chance, and/or weighting I don’t know, but colour me sceptical.

  • Crunkle_Foreskin@kbin.social
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    4
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    1 year ago

    The constant lead for Labour is pretty impressive: Tories deserve to lose the next election for what they’ve done (or haven’t done at all).

    It’s interesting how Labour has managed to separate themselves from Corbyn and make themselves seen to be electable. The Tories usually close polling gaps during a general election, but this one is pretty much a guaranteed loss for the Tories if it were held soon.

    • SbisasCostlyTurnover@feddit.uk
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      4
      ·
      1 year ago

      I mean, personally I think the success that Labour are seeing right now is directly a result of the Conservative party imploding over the last 2-3 years. Throw in a ‘cost of living’ crisis and the fact that we’ve had these guys in charge for well over a decade it shouldn’t be a massive shock that Labour are polling well.

      • Crunkle_Foreskin@kbin.social
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        1
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        1 year ago

        I think another huge part of a guaranteed loss is that the Tories have always been “the party of the homeowner”, yet good luck with that considering today’s interest rates on mortgages.

  • guriinii@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    1
    ·
    1 year ago

    I amazed the Greens are doing better there. They did fantastically well in the local elections and they seem to be the only ones making sense at the moment.