Thanks for the input. RE: Needing the war…yeah, I get it, but I’m not sure that there is a certainty that as soon as it stops, he will be liquidated. You need a faction to take over a country - organized, reasonably committed to a concept, different skills at different levels in a hierarchy. Maybe some thing they have a core of people they can trust - but this is Russia, and despite their butcherous incompetence and malignant greed - what they HAVE been good at is smashing any tiny ember of organized opposition.

I think they DO have qualms about sacrificing every Russian, as they are really just gangsters who want to lead tacky lives skimming off money from economic activity. You can’t steal what no longer exists. But - I think they also are in a trap of having weak institutions outside of the intelligence services and nobody really knows WHAT to do, never mind if they have the organizational effectiveness to do it.

The “losing to a worthy adversary” thing - yeah, that hubris is definitely part of their self image, but when you consider yourself a Great Super Power (even though you’re not, and on some level, the bright ones there probably understnad it), then the only one you’re allowed to lose to is the U.S. But it’s broadly accepted that Trump is their puppet, so…how can you surrender to your subordinate who, in NO WAY, could you reasonably construct a story that you are activey fighting.

This is kind of the weird paradox of having an idiot like Trump for an asset. He always pretends he has more leverage than he actually does. First year, FIRST big thing he did was cut direct U.S. support and tried to strong arm Ukraine into taking a bad deal. Europe stepped into the funding breach, and the 2025 version of the Ukrainian army turns out to be fully capable of resisting the 2025 version of the Russian army, even without direct U.S. military aid. In short - the fear of what WOULD happen if the U.S. pulled aid was more useful than the reality. Turns out, the U.S. aid isn’t that important to the current state of the war. And thus Ukraine doesn’t have to fear what the U.S. MIGHT do, because they’ve already done all they can, short of joining the war on the side of the Russians.

So - the SECOND big thing Trump did was start threatending allies like Denmark and Canada with invasion, and shooting ridiculous tarriffs in every direction. Degrade NATO, and erode economics. In a sense - if you can’t MAKE Europe stop supporting Ukraine, then cause a global recession to try and force them to be more selfish about their economies indirectly, forcing them to cut Ukrainian aid. That didn’t work, because it turns out crashing the global economy isn’t good for the U.S. economy either. And his mouthbreathing MAGAt horde doesn’t have investor-class levels of cash reserves to ride out a multi year recession. Probably behind closed doors, the EU told Trump’s team that if they so much as landed a pleasure craft in Greenland with a soldier on it, they would dump all U.S. Treasury reserves instantly and destroy the american economy, along with their own.

Then the THIRD big thing he did was starting to get invade-y by punching down on Venezuela, and he thought he could do the same to Iran. Again, he pissed away any military credibility they earned in Venezuela by being Netanyahu’s water-carrier in the ridiculous attack on Iran. The U.S. military’s limits are now clear - they are not interested in a boots-on-the-ground quagmire bloodbath. Well - Iran is not Venezuela and the limits of air strikes have been broadcast loud and clear. It’s hard to see Trump getting broad approval for another military boogaloo even in, say Cuba, much less literally attacking your allies.

Getting off on a tangent here, but - the point is - No serious minded thinkers in Russia think they’re fighting the U.S. right now. They’re not even talking about it in their most spittle-froth spewing propaganda channels. So - who are you ALLOWED to lose to? Britain? France? Germany? The Poles? That puts them in a pretty tight spot where they are only allowed to lose to a country whose leader is an obedident slave of your own.

So what CAN they do to trigger a russia-friendly outcome I mean? I don’t think they CAN do much anymore. They had options a couple of years ago and they had momentum. They were idiotic and greedy and doubled-down…because…reasons…and now Crimea is on the verge of being under seige. No water, no fuel, and soon no food or air defense. If Crimea collapses, then things will get very, very, very, very, very, very bad for them. As it is - their capitol is being bombed, their effective air defense is collapsing, they haven’t gained any meaningful ground in nearly two years, the economy is teetering on implosion, people are feeling the effects of the war in the few big cities that actually matter. Ukraine is getting stronger and Russia is getting into unthinkable, untenable situations. I dunno - all that to say, I think the game is later than people realize, and that there’s going to be some major major changes, soon.

Thanks for the chin wag.

You’re not supposed to alter the headlines of the URL. I did so as little as possible.

Yeah. It looks grim and unlikely to get better. So why not even PRETEND to negotiate? Maybe the simple answer is - they’re never going to. This ends the way of Gaddhafi, Mussolini, Ceaucescu and Hitler did. Their capitol is being bombed, their economy is teetering on collapse, their army is achieving nothing, people can’t afford to drive. The time to have an orderly exit was 6-12 months ago, or more. Since it’s now to this point, the odds of there being a peaceful end with a stable Russian state are falling rapidly.

Honestly - that’s frightening in a different way. Hopefully some people close to Putin agree. The russian tradition, from Nicholas to Stalin to Chernobyl has been to pin all blame for a disaster a scapegoat and then try and pretend it didn’t happen after they’re dead. It seem pretty likely that tradition will continue.

They had lots of chances where the smart thing would have been to stop over the past few years. At this point, they’re spent - on many levels - and any serous minded person can see it. Hubris is a prison

I don’t think they can do a big mobilization, and here’s why. First - politically and economically. They have already used up the most worthless mouths they could exchange for good ukrainian land. Mobilization now will cut deeper into the socioeconomic classes that they actually NEED going forward. Which will come with increased blowback internally. The other reason I don’t think they can is timing. If you needed reinforcements today, then you needed to get them into the pipeline 6m ago. They didn’t do it, and they’ve let their 2026 campaign sputter and Ukraine regain the initiative, which itself makes future mobilization more difficult if the brighter, more informed meat you’re dressing up this time is less convinced of the certainy of success. Or survival.

What would full-scale produce? 300k more bodies, in about 6-12 months, at great internal cost? That would be about half a year’s worth of casualties marching into seasoned Ukraininan drone swarm kill zones. They don’t have the mechanized armor or air support for an effective zerg rush anymore. Just replacing raw numbers isn’t the same as maintaining or improving the quality of your Average Figthing Man. Russian capabilities are declining, and it’s not a slow incremental slide - it’s a friggin’ matterhorn drop in effective capability once you’ve lost your professional army AND your soviet hardware inheritance.

Thanks for the chin wag.

You’re right, of course. It’s 3 words, and says more about my immaturity than it does any damage to the context of the article. But you’re still right.

it’s 3 words, because I’m still immature even at advanced age, and no attempt to mislead anyone on the context of the article. But rules are rules.

Hope not, and I doubt it. China is Russia’s boss now, and they won’t allow that. China are traders first, warriors second. Nuking Ukraine doesn’t have any upside for China.

Besides - who would you actually nuke? You’re invading Ukraine to control it - these are intelligence service gangsters running the country, and they love their tacky ass lives of dachas, supercars, trips abroad, yachts, caviar, champagne, mistressses and murder. This war was always about slimy, overpromoted, black hearted gangster ghouls trying to win glory and get a little bit richer. And solving Russia’s terminal demographic decline. When you claim your neighbour’s land is actually yours, turning it into a glowing ashtray doesn’t make any sense.

Even if you accepted that and it was pure spite and revenge - IT’S RIGHT NEXT DOOR. And that would be the end of Russia as member of the global community. They’d become an agrarian wasteland cut off from ALL trade, unable buy or sell to anyone who remotely has the things they have to have to sustain an industrial society that already doesn’t sustain it’s own needs.

Nuke the US? When their leader works for you? Not happening. Nuke Europe? Russian air defense can’t handle Ukrainian drones today You think they can stop British and French missile launched nukes? Germany would have nukes in about a month, followed by Poland, Italy, Spain, Canada, Australia etc

No matter what - the Russians may be acting like idiots, but they probably still want to live. Probably. Nukes aren’t a reset button for past mistakes.