Russian negotiation tactics are a funny thing. It’s been well documented that their truculence in negotations is as follows:
**Maximalist Goals! **- Concessions are for the loser. Concern for Life, Justice and Diplomacy are tools of the weak to keep down the strong. Demand everything, concede nothing, and eventually the other side will, out of their soft decadence, give you something to make it all stop. And then you have something you didn’t have before!
Well - take a few steps back. War is politics by other means - a political objective is sought by force. In this case, Russia obviously WANTED regime change and territorial conquest. They aren’t going to get either in this phase of their 1,000 year enslavement project, and they do know it.
So what does it all mean? Why is their official position, like in the article, "WE WILL NOT NEOGITATE!! THE WEST REFUSES TO ADDRESS THE CORE ISSUES BLAH BLAH BLAH BLYAT!. <Free Shrugs>. But break it down a bit:
- Russia can’t advance anymore in any meaningful way. Their dual tactics of forcing men into holes and waiting to be killed + standoff terror attacks cannot possibly achieve their objectives.
- Their leaders are not budging one inch, as they expect to be given something that rationalizes their idiotic invasion’s massive losses. They should stop. They should’ve stopped a long time again. They can’t stop now, as they’ll be the ones making concessions. Concessions that probably roll them at LEAST back to 2022 boundaries, and maybe even 2014. 1991 seems unrealistic in the short term - there’s no way to make them leave Donetsk or Luhansk easily. But - that’s not necessary for Ukraine to Win. You can probably make them leave Crimea without the bloody business of kicking them out forcefully. That’s what’s happening right now. Crimea is being made untenable. Donetsk & Luhansk would have to come later, and by other means. If at all - there might be a realpolitik basis to just let portions go anyways as a buffer zone for lots of reasons.
- They still act like they expect that the U.S. or EU will force Ukraine to make concessions. And in normal times, that might be viable. But their agent Trump is such a complete tool that Ukraine survives without direct US aid. He’s alientated ALL of their traditional allies, and has pissed away any leverage they had about what MIGHT happen if the U.S. pulled suport. He just went ahead and did it - because he’s an idiot - and guess what? The 2025 version of the Ukrainian army can continue to resist the 2025 version of the Russian one. Short of the U.S. invading Ukraine, they can’t do anything else. Certainly the Iranian experience showed the limits of american air strikes when you’re not willing to risk casualities in a ground war.
- And Europe - which views the threat of a Russia rewarded for invasion very differently than the current American administration does - is willing to quietly and slowly defy impotent U.S. demands that Ukraine make permanent concessions.
Ukraine is now bombing even Moscow, nearly at will. The Russian population, so long complacent and feeling unaffected by the war beign fought in their name, is now feeling real pain. Nothing like what they have subjected Ukrainians to - but for them, real, undeniable pain and a confused anxiety as to why their Stronk Invincible Inevitable army can’t protect them. Not just inflation, or sanctions, or gas prices. Huge explosions inside the Moscow city limits, while their Air Defense continues to show it’s complete ineffectiveness.
WTF is Russia’s political leadership doing? I dunno - but at some level, they are DEFINITELY stalling for time. Time for what? Who knows. Every day that goes by, their negotiating position gets worse and worse. Their small squad infiltration tactics & terror bombing is ineffective as a war winning strategy, and Ukraine can probably continue at this pace for a long, long time. Can the Russians? We’ll see.
Diplomatically, and Militarily - the Russians seem stuck in the 20th century. Their Horde War philosophy STILL depends on rational actors on the West side who don’t have much appetite for conflict because they’re afraid of what the Russians might do. But - their bluff was called - and they’re a joke, frankly. It turns out that what they CAN do is not that much. This chest-thumping assumption that they could roll from Poland to Portugal before anyone could do anything has proven to be a complete myth. They wish for peace-loving/feckless pussies in NATO to force Ukraine to concede, as would be more likely under Cold War rules where the threat of nuclear escalation trumped all. But that’s also dead in the water, because the world realizes there’s not really any basis for a nuclear war to happen when you’re failing to win a war against your neighbour and the presumed enemy America is led by your best intelligence asset. They can’t admit defeat to an inferior race like the Ukrainians. Hubris is a prison.
So what are the heck are they doing? Losing. Stalling for time. Preparing their bolt holes in case of a political collapse. Why aren’t they talking seriously about realistic negotiations when their capital is being attacked daily? They can’t win. They have already lost. But as optimistic as that sounds, this means their leadership is not acting rationally - this war will continue as long as Putin is alive or the army collapses completely.
They can’t retreat cause empires don’t tolerate weakness. Thats why there were so many attempts “to preserve russians face” at negotiations, all of that denied by Ukraine (rightfully).
The best they can expect is current lines, and no recognition of occupied lands. And that means “betraying people of Donbass” (not like that ever mattered, but we are dealing with symbols).
All that, and you also would need to shift from wartime economy to civilian while still sanctioned.
Imo, they would try full-scale mobilisation and zerg rush first.
They had lots of chances where the smart thing would have been to stop over the past few years. At this point, they’re spent - on many levels - and any serous minded person can see it. Hubris is a prison
I don’t think they can do a big mobilization, and here’s why. First - politically and economically. They have already used up the most worthless mouths they could exchange for good ukrainian land. Mobilization now will cut deeper into the socioeconomic classes that they actually NEED going forward. Which will come with increased blowback internally. The other reason I don’t think they can is timing. If you needed reinforcements today, then you needed to get them into the pipeline 6m ago. They didn’t do it, and they’ve let their 2026 campaign sputter and Ukraine regain the initiative, which itself makes future mobilization more difficult if the brighter, more informed meat you’re dressing up this time is less convinced of the certainy of success. Or survival.
What would full-scale produce? 300k more bodies, in about 6-12 months, at great internal cost? That would be about half a year’s worth of casualties marching into seasoned Ukraininan drone swarm kill zones. They don’t have the mechanized armor or air support for an effective zerg rush anymore. Just replacing raw numbers isn’t the same as maintaining or improving the quality of your Average Figthing Man. Russian capabilities are declining, and it’s not a slow incremental slide - it’s a friggin’ matterhorn drop in effective capability once you’ve lost your professional army AND your soviet hardware inheritance.
Thanks for the chin wag.
6 months is assuming you gonna give them any decent training. Their main propaganda theme for many years was ww2 and to be like their grandfathers in it.
So yeah, they’ve progressed in their ww2 cosplay but we can go deeper. They still have personal rifles, after all, and not just several per 30 men.
As for the bit about taking people who are actually needed - well “victory, we wouldn’t stand behind the price”, same ww2 narrative.
Now, there is a risk full scale mobilisation would trigger some uncontrollable processes. And they were evading it for quite some time.
But the thing is, I don’t think russian leadership is purely rational. Their leader sees himself as a messiah on a holy mission to reunite the Rus and be the Gatherer of Russian Lands.
I don’t think he will bail and I’m fine with it. We need to end russia now, not to leave this problem to our children.
I’m not sure how useful comparisons to WW2 are, though they are clearly used to appeal to mythical nonsense for propaganda purposes. Suggesting that WW2 still has lessons to learn 80 years after the fact is like being in WW2 and saying that you should heed the lessons of the Franco-Prussian War of 1870. The battles and military capabilities are in absolutely different universes.
As for the “mission”. Yeah, maybe. That might also be guilding the lily a bit. These are (quite often literally) gangsters ingratiated with the malign power of the Russian intelligence and security services. Platitudes about glory and restoring the entitled imperial greatness of russia is perhaps again propaganda draped over the more pragmatic goal of slimy gangsters getting a little bit richer, while feeding lies to the masses to keep them compliant. Are Putin and his immediate enablers rational? Well - sort of yes, but as you say sort of no, or they would have stopped by now and been content with having shown the world they are serious about their near-abroad security. I absolutely agree with you that he won’t bail now - the time has passed for an orderly, principled conclusion. He’s chosen the more violent personal exit route of mussolini, Gaddhafi and Caeucescu. How and when we get there is all that’s left to be decided.
Thank you for your input!