Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy is showing clear signs of structural exhaustion. The contours of a genuine economic endgame are coming into view for Russia. This is the finding of a new Kiel Report published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
Correction: the war economy. Important distinction because it is a specific type economy that has switched to mainly sustain a war at the cost of other expenses, and not a normal economy. If the war economy reaches its limits, so does the war effort.
Mostly because they have been proven ineffective, since Ukraine is shooting almost all of them down. It doesn’t prove anything about the economy.
Again, I’m not convinced Russia will soon be on its last leg, I want to be hopeful, but I’m not anymore at the moment.
Seeing is believing…