There was a time, not too long ago, when the Welsh Liberal Democrats mattered. Never at the top, mind you, but they were at least part of the national conversation. A couple of Senedd seats, a smattering of MPs, a sense of progressive credibility. But that time is over. And after this week’s full-throated rejection of Welsh independence from their lone Senedd member, it’s hard to see them doing anything but fading quietly into political irrelevance.
Note - I am the author of this piece, any constructive feedback or criticism is welcome!
I welcome disagreement, but it helps if it engages with what I actually wrote.
You are right that private polls should be treated with caution. I did not spell out those limitations clearly enough in the article, and I take that point. But even putting the YesCymru poll to one side, the very data you have shared backs up the trend I am highlighting. In 2014, support for independence was around 12 percent. Now it is at 35 percent, or 41 percent if you exclude “don’t knows”. That is a clear and sustained increase over the past decade.
On youth support, the figures you show are from 2023 and are already outdated. More recent polling consistently shows that support for independence among younger voters is considerably higher than among the general population, often by a large margin, for example 72% in the most recent poll if “don’t knows” are excluded.
The Welsh Lib Dems do not ‘need’ to adopt a pro-independence stance, but ignoring a steadily growing shift in public opinion, especially among the voter base they have traditionally relied on, is politically short-sighted. Recognising this is not wishful thinking, it is basic strategic awareness.
I was engaging with what you wrote, namely disagreeing with it as I dont think failing to supporting a minority position (and one for which a large chunk of that minority are going to be nailed on Plaid supporters) is costing the lib dems significant amounts of support, even if a single poll shows an anomolously large increase in support in one narrow age bracket. I dont think your article made a convincing case for that.
Just to update. Excluding don’t.knows is very flawed.
1st there is every reason to assume a majority will vote.
Don’t know is more often do not want to comment then have no opinion. And many of the rest are not able to decide with the info available.
Without other evidence it cannot be allocated to either side. Hence why the polls never exclude it.