There was a time, not too long ago, when the Welsh Liberal Democrats mattered. Never at the top, mind you, but they were at least part of the national conversation. A couple of Senedd seats, a smattering of MPs, a sense of progressive credibility. But that time is over. And after this week’s full-throated rejection of Welsh independence from their lone Senedd member, it’s hard to see them doing anything but fading quietly into political irrelevance.
Note - I am the author of this piece, any constructive feedback or criticism is welcome!
No surprise to me in 2025 after seeing them side with No in 2014 in Scotland. Morally bankrupt, liars, and religious fundamentalists are all they have left in Scotland. A wasted vote
So the reason that the LDs in Wales aren’t doing better is they don’t support a cause that the majority are against and only has the consistent support of about 1 in 4 people? Makes sense.
I’m unsure how much you know about demographics in Wales, so I’ll explain some to you now.
Independence on the whole is currently polling about 41% in favour, that’s the entire electorate. When you instead look at 16-34 Year Olds, that support jumps to over 70%, it’s also become clear that as this group continues aging, their independence support isn’t wavering.
Historically, The Welsh Lib Dems have garnered most of their electoral support from the 16-34 block of voters. In shitting on one of the biggest issues that over 70% of their base care about, they’re shooting themselves in the foot massively.
I’ll try images since you seemed to ignore my link
The very highest is 35% and has generally been in the 25-30% range.
As for your contention that independence has 70% support amongst the young…
That’s 41% against 20% for independence in the 18-24 demographic.
Your argument that there’s a massive groundswell of separatist sentiment in Wales that the LD are dooming themselves by not catering to just doesn’t stand up.
You seem to miss the irony of claiming that I ignored your links, when the very piece you’re commenting under contains links substantiating the claims I’ve made here to you in the comments.
I suppose you make a little more sense to me now that I know you haven’t actually read the article.
Not OP.
But one poll that still shows the majority against. And indicates a huge huge change in the younger voters over past polls.
Seems to fail to back up most out your claims.
You claim the young are not changing views as they get older. Unfortunately your one poll from march 25 is in no way enough to support that. When past polls all indicate it dose. Untill you have 2 or more polls over a longer period. All it shows is an increase in people of that current age groups.
Personally it is none of my business. As an Englishman I feel both Scotland and Wales should be free to do as they want. Only when they have the internal support to do so.
But your evidence is not enough to claim Welsh LD is making a mistake when all polling still shows a majority no with just one 1000 person poll showing a swing in under 35s.
There is a good reason parties tend to rely on poll of polls rather then single results.
A single 1000 person survey in a almost 3000000 population will always be at risk of anomaly.
Not to mention any poll funded by a group hoping for one answer. Needs very close analysis. They are not all bad. But it is very possible and common for such groups to alter questions and demographic requirements to paint their own picture.
I appreciate the more balanced tone here, so let me respond in kind.
You are absolutely right that a single poll, especially one commissioned by an advocacy group, should not be treated as definitive. That is why I did not base my argument solely on the March 2025 poll. It is part of a broader pattern that has emerged across multiple public polls over the past few years. YouGov, Redfield & Wilton and Omnisis, for example, have all shown support for independence gradually increasing, particularly among younger voters. The private poll simply highlights and reinforces that existing trend.
I also agree that we need more consistent data to fully establish whether pro-independence views are retained as voters age. However, the evidence we do have suggests that this is happening. Those who were in favour at 25 still tend to be in favour at 35. While that trend needs more time to be confirmed definitively, it is already significant enough to warrant attention, at least in my opinion.
The main point here is not that independence is guaranteed or inevitable, but that the Welsh Lib Dems have traditionally relied on younger voters, and younger voters are consistently more likely to support independence than older ones. Ignoring that shift may not matter today, but it is a strategic risk in the longer term.
And just to add, I fully agree with your final point. Independence should only happen if it has clear and sustained support within Wales. That is the only democratic basis on which it could, or perhaps even should, proceed.
You did ask for feedback btw, I assumed you weren’t just wanting people to agree with you when you said that.
I’ll admit I didn’t follow the link in your article to the other article about a private poll from an independence campaign that only released partial results. As HumanPengiun said, private polls from interested parties should be treated with suspicion, especially when you can only see select results and when they dramatically depart from previous polls and align with that the commissioning group want.
I welcome disagreement, but it helps if it engages with what I actually wrote.
You are right that private polls should be treated with caution. I did not spell out those limitations clearly enough in the article, and I take that point. But even putting the YesCymru poll to one side, the very data you have shared backs up the trend I am highlighting. In 2014, support for independence was around 12 percent. Now it is at 35 percent, or 41 percent if you exclude “don’t knows”. That is a clear and sustained increase over the past decade.
On youth support, the figures you show are from 2023 and are already outdated. More recent polling consistently shows that support for independence among younger voters is considerably higher than among the general population, often by a large margin, for example 72% in the most recent poll if “don’t knows” are excluded.
The Welsh Lib Dems do not ‘need’ to adopt a pro-independence stance, but ignoring a steadily growing shift in public opinion, especially among the voter base they have traditionally relied on, is politically short-sighted. Recognising this is not wishful thinking, it is basic strategic awareness.
I was engaging with what you wrote, namely disagreeing with it as I dont think failing to supporting a minority position (and one for which a large chunk of that minority are going to be nailed on Plaid supporters) is costing the lib dems significant amounts of support, even if a single poll shows an anomolously large increase in support in one narrow age bracket. I dont think your article made a convincing case for that.
Just to update. Excluding don’t.knows is very flawed.
1st there is every reason to assume a majority will vote.
Don’t know is more often do not want to comment then have no opinion. And many of the rest are not able to decide with the info available.
Without other evidence it cannot be allocated to either side. Hence why the polls never exclude it.
