Let’s imagine that AI will become cheaper and more efficient, it will not differ from humans in terms of the quality of its work, it will replace almost all intellectual workers, and only the operators of these AI models will have jobs, that is, one person or several people monitor the entire office of AI workers for a small salary. Yes, the AI bubble will burst, but the problems of ordinary people will only get worse from this, jobs will not return, no, automation will continue anyway.
Is it worth retraining as a mechanic, plumber or something like that?
We’re barely past the Wright brothers’ plane stage of AI right now, so predicting when the technology will level off is very difficult and just extrapolating forward from the limitations that the technology has today is unlikely to be reliable. I think you’re right regarding what we’ll see in the next few years but I have about thirty years until retirement. By then things will probably be very different and that’s something to keep in mind when choosing a career (or deciding to have a child).