Let’s imagine that AI will become cheaper and more efficient, it will not differ from humans in terms of the quality of its work, it will replace almost all intellectual workers, and only the operators of these AI models will have jobs, that is, one person or several people monitor the entire office of AI workers for a small salary. Yes, the AI bubble will burst, but the problems of ordinary people will only get worse from this, jobs will not return, no, automation will continue anyway.
Is it worth retraining as a mechanic, plumber or something like that?
I’ll probably be dead soon so that’s my plan.
AI will not be able to replace intellectual workers, not as it is now anyways. The only people who think that either don’t understand the intellectual work or the LLMs.
For an AI to be able to do that it would need to be an AGI, which we’re not even close to. And if it gets created it’s not just intellectual workers that are at risk, in fact intellectual workers would be the last one to be replaced.
LLMs are a neat trick, they provide some usefulness and can be used to improve productivity. But the moment you give them any autonomy they will destroy everything. And that’s a core issue with the technology, LLMs don’t understand what they’re replying to, they’re just a word predicting machine. Expecting LLMs to do any form of intellectual work is akin to saying accountants will lose their jobs because calculators exist.
I wouldn’t bet that physical robotics will lag behind for long if AI does get to the point where it takes most knowledge jobs. Automating software development has turned out to be both easier and more profitable than automating plumbing, but that doesn’t mean no one is ever going to automate plumbing. So as a software developer, I’m earning and investing money while I still can, and I’m doing the things on my bucket list in case we get the worst-case scenario. I think that in the long term, the outcome in which I still need money but have no way of earning it is less likely than either the “good end” or the “bad end” in which no one needs money anymore, so sometimes I feel silly saving up money I think I will probably never spend, but better safer than sorrier.
Nah.
Most technologies become exponentially more difficult to improve. We’re climbing thar curve now with gen ai but its still so far from being usable i honestly doubt it will ever replace a significant portion of tasks comprising knowledge jobs beyond the most basic.
Like self driving cars. They were almost ready years ago but the last 5% of capability seems to still be out of reach.
Gsm AI doesn’t just hallucinate sometimes. In my “knowledge job” you can load a few thousand words of reference materials into context, ask questions about it, and anything that requires even a modicum of inferred meaning is very likely incorrect. Worse, bots are amazingly good at being xlconfidently incorrect. I dont just mean not quite right on a few technicalities. I mean the opposite of correct.
My understanding is that the current state of physical robots is much worse. We can barely get a bot to drive around your house sucking up pet dander. I watched some commentary recently that made a very convincing argument that humanoid robots will never be popular for any purpose. Just imagine a bot of any form assigned to some simple task like clean a bathroom, or weed a garden - its comical.
Just like flying cars were “the future” until it became obvious that its a terrible idea, I dont think bots will replace many physical jobs.
We’re barely past the Wright brothers’ plane stage of AI right now, so predicting when the technology will level off is very difficult and just extrapolating forward from the limitations that the technology has today is unlikely to be reliable. I think you’re right regarding what we’ll see in the next few years but I have about thirty years until retirement. By then things will probably be very different and that’s something to keep in mind when choosing a career (or deciding to have a child).
Like telephone switchboard operators, travel agents, and knocker uppers before you, we will adapt. PCs themselves upended almost every industry as recently as the 80s and 90s. Even if the job is to operate AI, the job will exist and they will pay to train you to do it.