• possibly a cat@lemmy.ml
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    1 year ago

    I suspect the US has begun moving pawns in anticipation of withdrawing support for Taiwan in the still-distant future.

    There are many geopolitical steps that would need to occur first, most likely over the span of many years. But I think the US sees a different future now than it did 20 years ago, and I think they recognize that one day they will not be willing to pay the price that China will be ready to extract over Taiwan.

    The initial stage should look like overt fear-mongering, counterintuitively. Money and therefore emotions need to be mobilized in the US to put things into place so that the severance can go smoothly. An aggressive stance is presented as a masquerade of what is going on behind-the-scenes. But what is really happening is that Taiwan is being made redundant.

    What is Taiwan’s most strategic asset for its allies? Semiconductors. What has the US been pouring money into subsidizing this year? Semiconductors. I think TSMC is more likely to become irrelevant than bombed.

    Of course all it takes is one senior leader who drank too much of the koolade for theatre to become war.

    • Frank [he/him, he/him]@hexbear.net
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      1 year ago

      withdrawing support for Taiwan in the still-distant future.

      They’re going to tip the Republic of China in to the ocean as soon as they’ve stolen all of TSCM’s productive capacity. That’s all this was ever about. They’re building chip fabs in Arizona right now. As soon as the US can produce it’s own Chips the RoC is… going to go right back to tense but peaceful relations with the mainland like they had before DC started waving it’s grand imperial [redacted] around.

        • GarbageShoot [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          1 year ago

          Yeah, you can say in a meaningful sense that the US co-founded Taiwan. I personally think that part of the reason the US wants to recreate Taiwan’s manufacturing capacity is that it makes Taiwan much more expendable, meaning it can be used for military provocations and even war (as some US generals are openly calling for or predicting) without risking the loss of an irreplaceable economic asset to the US.

          • Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works
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            1 year ago

            I thought the US Taiwanese support had more to do with keeping an open lane in East China Sea? If they can win over Taiwan somehow then that would be completely closed off in a potential future conflict.