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Cake day: July 3rd, 2023

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  • A surge to the right, further populism and eroding economic credibility.

    Their voting cohort are either pensionable and dropping off or disaffected Red wall areas needing credible alternative messaging to shift away from Tory ‘easy solutions’ (blame everything else). The former will become less relevant. The latter needs more work by labour to avoid them becoming recurring voters for the conservatives.

    The small number of true neoliberal elite and foreign actors are finding their influence curtailing for now … but for them it’s a long game. Assuming labour do get in for a couple of terms, they’ll need to use the second term for some fairly heavy reform (house of lords, rebalancing of public ownership of key utilities, full transparency on party and individual donations, limit on external jobs MPs take)