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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

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  • Ukraine is losing ground. Unless something changes, they will eventually lose the war.

    The things required to stop that will necessarily be escalatory.

    The West needs to fucking swallow that pill instead of endlessly fretting about escalation. Do you think Putin is worried about escalation? He just brought North Korea into the war.

    Ukraine will be a smouldering ruin and Russian troops will be amassed at the border of the NATO Baltics licking their chops and the big brain west will be saying “Thank goodness we were so responsible in the Former Ukraine”






  • No, I was just trying to drag out of you how you see the incident without priming the pump. How does one minimize the killing of hundreds of unarmed students? I knew people like you existed, I just never had the opportunity to witness someone actually do it, and I was curious how it’s done.

    You roll 20 additional days into it as a buffer, and count injuries as equivalent to murders, and let them happen anywhere.

    It can’t be the “Tiananmen Square Massacre” for you because then couldn’t draw in PLA members who had heart attacks and died elsewhere that day because they weren’t at the square. You need to create a context where they’re all the same thing and the geography of place really damages the ability to do that.

    You just dilute a massacre to make it not a massacre by expanding the time and places. Super interesting. It’s a distinctly different approach to propegands than you’d typically see in the west or Russia.





  • If people hated the bill on it’s own, then shouldn’t it be less popular than Trudeau?

    No.

    Therefore anything connected with him is going to have an inherent downward swing of opinion due to the association? Right?

    No.

    These relationships can exist, but it’s not the case that they must exist. We know through polling what the favorability is of the CT: low. We know through polling how well understood it is: poor. We know through polling that people who don’t understand it are much more inclined to view it unfavorably. We already have a very straightforward explanation.

    Adding in Trudeau is adding a 3rd variable into the mix to explain something that’s already been explained. And when you add him it, you have to start inventing justifications to make things align with his numbers.

    It is the antithesis of Occam’s razor




  • Maybe. But if it was that simple then I’d expect it to be at least as unfavorable as Trudeau.

    I think it’s just people don’t understand it, and I think that’s frankly the fault of the liberals.

    People hear “tax” and go “shit that’s a thing I have to pay, right?” And “carbon” and say “my home is heated by natural gas and I drive to work” and then say “the government wants to tax me not to freeze and to get to work?” And then they don’t connect the dots that the money that keeps getting direct deposited to them by the government is funded by the tax.

    Like, if it was called “The Climate Bonus Payment” and the government had a little fucking fanfare around the distribution, it’d be wildly popular.