It’s the summer of 2026. Is AI really cheaper than humans or is it an outright lie? People said AI models be improving, becoming ten times more efficient and cheaper, but what is the reality? What can we really expect in 2027, for example?
It’s the summer of 2026. Is AI really cheaper than humans or is it an outright lie? People said AI models be improving, becoming ten times more efficient and cheaper, but what is the reality? What can we really expect in 2027, for example?
The thing about knowledge work is it isn’t about knowing things, it’s about knowing how to put things together. AI lets me accomplish certain tasks faster than I could alone. I can sit in a meeting and spend 30 seconds asking AI to run an analysis and then I can focus back on the meeting. After the meeting, the AI response might be right, but it’s probably not. But it has gathered up all the raw data and now I can add calculations to a spreadsheet, or look at the data in one place rather than having to query 8 different systems.
AI is good at rote tasks and grunt work. It’ll write you a bit of code slicker than shit, but you have to very specifically tell it exactly what to do and how to do it. That’s knowledge work. Actually following the instructions without fucking up is the mundane part. And AI can do that really fast, and if your instructions are very clear, fairly complete, and you understand the likely failure modes that will trip it up, you can really increase your productivity.
But “vibing” anything with AI is bullshit and doomed to failure. If you don’t know exactly what you want and exactly how you want it built, you are going to get some rancid garbage. Knowledge work isn’t in any danger.
What I do fear is where the next generation of knowledge workers will come from when AI is faster and easier than building up juniors to seniors. I believe they will continue to find their way, but it might be harder and there might be fewer.