Justine Greening, the former Tory MP, argues that the current Tory strategy of going after Reform voters isn’t working. She seems to think the Tories should try to capture centrists instead (which is what David Cameron did, I would argue).
The party has attempted to be a “mini-me” version of Reform UK, and unsurprisingly Reform voters prefer the real thing. And this strategy’s consequential alienation of Conservative-leaning centre-ground voters has seen them head off to either the Lib Dems or Labour, or to the Green party. The party has no winning majority in any age group of voters other than those over 70. This is no basis for a successful electoral strategy for the longer term.
The recent elections in Canada and Australia were interesting. Right-wing MAGA-lite parties were leading the polls in each country, then both ended up losing to centre-left parties.
Who knows what will happen in the UK though. Like you say, it’s years until the next election, and lots can happen in that time.