• 0 Posts
  • 56 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: June 18th, 2023

help-circle










  • Israel has already been fighting a war with Hezbollah that Hezbollah declared. These attacks were fairly specifically targeted at Hezbollah’s military equipment. They have been arguably successful at disrupting Hezbollah’s communications, and likely command and control systems. That by itself is a valid military objective.

    To the extent that these attacks directly hurt Hezbollah personnel, and to the extent that they damaged Hezbollah’s morale: those too are valid military objectives.

    So “war crime” gets thrown around here quite a bit just because there are high civilian casualties. The facts are twofold: Civilian casualties have always been a part of warfare; and there is no specific number or proportion that makes some act into a war crime. That’s just not how these kinds of laws are written.

    I have not yet seen a strong argument for a specific war crime rooted in a specific basis in international law. A lot of people bring up protocols 1 and 2 to the Geneva conventions, but Israel and the US have not ratified those.

    There are other conventions that regulate weapons of war, but I’m pretty sure none of them are going to address pager bombs directly. An argument there would have to be at least somewhat creative.


  • None of the current ICBM platforms were designed for missile defense. Missile defense simply did not exist at the time.

    Sentinel is busting its budget because it’s renovating and rebuilding all of the ground segments: all of those decrepit silos and computer systems. It’s still money well spent in my opinion.

    Missile guidance is not a computationally hard problem, and it hasn’t changed much since the 50s. Terminal missile defense is a fantastically hard problem, and wasn’t mastered until the last decade or two. And the current generation missile defense capabilities still haven’t all been demonstrated in combat.

    Having said that, I would generally expect NATO’s missiles to work as advertised in a hot war. And I would plan for Russia’s missiles to be somewhat less effective than they advertise, but still a credible threat.








  • I can’t immediately find a reference for this, but I would assume that all US forces deployed to support NATO in Europe can be commanded by the Supreme Allied Commander (SACEUR) who is always an American general. If the Russkies decide to invade, I’m sure that SACEUR has the authority to dictate response if he can’t immediately reach the President.

    The only reason that NATO would need to urgently and immediately speak to POTUS is for nuclear weapons release, and fortunately that scenario has been wargamed to hell and back.