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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 4th, 2023

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  • Friend of mine used to volunteer for the local chapter of a well-known national non-profit. He tried to explain all the technical benefits of setting up a website, yada yada. The board didn’t care and were bored.

    He finally set up a small demo on his own. Just a few screens. Ran a small test. Presented static screenshots, along with charts and stats on viewership and engagements. Had mockups of donation pages, volunteer signup screens, newsletters, etc. That was when people saw the value and got interested.

    Nobody cares about decentralized social networks, the technology, or how terrible the other outlets are. For a municipality, you may want to focus on maintaining multiple channels of communications and ways to reach and engage the most users. You could then fold the fediverse into it as one more channel. Something they should keep an eye on. They’ll need a way to post the same content to all those channels with the least effort. Something easy that a trained intern or clerk can do.

    Guarantee there will be questions of cost of setup, maintenance, and risks. May want to have some answers and slides ready.









  • The common benchmark ‘replacement’ ratio of birth to death is 2.1.

    Once a country falls below that, they’re on a slow multi-generational train ride to extinction. There will be multiple stops along the way, where small towns get hollowed out (youngsters move to the cities), and the social safety net for the elderly goes away (not enough money coming in from fewer young, money-earning people).

    Next stop is where there aren’t enough caregivers for the growing elderly population. After that, you start going down the dark alleys of Senecide, where the elderly are left out in the forest or ignored to die.

    None of this is new. Japan and South Korea have been dealing with it for the past 20 years.

    Only solution is immigration from high-baby to low-baby regions. But if the culture is closed and xenophobic, they’ll put barriers up to slow the flow. Second class citizen status. Sectioned-off neighborhoods. Laws to prohibit inter-racial marriage. That sort of thing. After a few years, those immigrants will trend somewhere safe and financially viable where they will get proper respect.

    There will be partial stops, of course, where local nationalists will make angry noises about purity and poisoning bloods of the country, etc and win local elections (👋🏽 USA, Germany, Italy, France, and Netherlands!)

    But the hard, long-term reality is: a safe, peaceful life is expensive and the cultural norms putting women down just don’t fly any more. The kids are just not making enough babies, and taking away reproductive rights just makes people angry and less likely to reproduce.

    This is true for more than 50% of the countries in the world, including UK, US, and Canada. And the trendlines are pointing down.

    I spent 1.5 years working on this stuff in my last job. There are tons of reports out there from WHO, IMF, and the UN, all backing all this using fun terms like ‘Demographic Time Bomb.’

    tldr: We’re screwed if we don’t find a way to assimilate and encourage immigration, and reduce the cost of raising kids.

    Thanks for coming to my TED talk.

    Edit: Current government of Spain gets it: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/09/pedro-sanchez-unveils-plans-to-make-it-easier-for-migrants-to-settle-in-spain




  • Ed is getting good at lobbing these darts at hype bubbles.

    The thing that this writeup ignores is that the object isn’t to show short-term revenue, but to put all competitors out of business, be the last one standing, and create a monopoly. Either that or get bought out so the investors can move on to the next thing. But at $150B valuation, only MSFT or Nvidia can afford to buy them outright.

    Google, Meta, and Amazon burned through cash for years, but they eventually outran all competition and then monetized the users who had nowhere else to go.









  • It’s reposted on HBO Max on Sundays without commercials.

    I’ve caught the first two episodes. Mimics some of the British version’s games: caption competition, fill in the blanks, etc. It has more of the early Angus Deayton vibe (single host for each show). The host, Roy Wood Jr. is a comedian along with the captains, so it’s more of a 1+2 show, whereas Angus always played the straight man. Also, the whole scoring point count artifice is missing.

    So far, has had some funny bits and very timely for an election year. Worth watching, IMO, as long as you don’t compare it to the current version of the British original.