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Cake day: July 26th, 2023

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  • If you want some timelines, summer 2025 is where I expect Russia to run out of steam. That’s when they will have gone through pretty much all USSR equipment they had and they are not producing nearly enough to keep up with the current rate of attrition. It will also be the 4th year of war, so also the 4th year of sanctions. Remember that when those sanctions were put into place, they immediately said it would take time before they started to really hurt. Well, they are hurting in a significant way already and the noose is only getting tighter. I think they might just make it to the end of 2025, but I don’t see them keeping up the war into 2026 unless China steps in and starts supplying military aid.

    There are a lot of aspects to this war, but I think the combination of running out of money, people and military hardware has to lead to some serious reconsideration of their approach.

    But the regime won’t survive not winning the war, so we’ll see. Just don’t expect that whomever replaces Putin will be less dangerous. They are more likely to be truly extreme, rather than only cynically so.









  • I think the crisis moment for Ukraine has passed mostly. The threat of a breakthrough from a couple of months ago is not gone, but stalled long enough to shore up the defensive lines and have ammunition and supplies delivered from the west (and let’s be honest here, that is still for 90% coming from the US). The strategy for Ukraine should now be to hold line and hit the supply lines.

    The sanctions that were implemented take time to really bite and you start seeing the results of these more and more.

    One thing I think Ukraine should do is start recruiting mercenaries from Nepal and other places where Russia is recruiting. Since they’re not (or rather “probably would not”) be thrown in the meat grinder, I think that after some time they can dry up those sources too, while at the same time addresing some of their own manpower issues.



  • I disagree with that sentiment. The West was willing to put up with a lot of crap from CCP, but the refusal to allow a somewhat level playing ground, the tying of the fixed exchange rate of the remnibi to the dollar and the growing hostility and aggression towards Taiwan caused a lot of mistrust to grow and fester. When you look at the early 2000’s, the West was willing to play ball, just as it was playing ball with Russia at that time. Authoritarian strongmen are the issue here, not the West’s attitudes towards those respective nations.