I’m really curious why Biden thinks a negotiated end is likely. The situation looks really bad for Russia from where I’m sitting, and if that doesn’t change how would a negotiation work? The Americans have awesome intelligence on Russia, but they also have nuclear fears that might lead upper leadership to do some wishful thinking.
Russia has like 3.5 times the population of Ukraine, so Ukraine has to take the advantage with tactics and weapons. Unfortunately, Russia is getting war material from other countries, most notably Iran, North Korea, and China, all three of whom have focused significant parts of their economy on preparing for war, and none of whom like the West. Europe still depends on Russian gas, and significant parts of the world still depend on grain, gas, and fertilizer from Russia.
For Ukraine’s part, none of the West want to escalate into full-blown war with Russia, and the US Republicans are looking forward to the day when they can stop supporting Ukraine - a day which may come in as little as 18 months.
Russia is getting war material from other countries, most notably Iran, North Korea, and China
China too? I thought they were basically sticking to non-lethal aid.
Europe still depends on Russian gas
Come to think of it, I haven’t heard an update on that in a while. I know Germany was building LNG ports at a mind-boggling pace. I have to assume at some point they won’t be strictly dependent anymore, but I don’t know when.
and the US Republicans are looking forward to the day when they can stop supporting Ukraine - a day which may come in as little as 18 months.
That’s a big variable too. What’s the West without the US? We may find out. My government has already mentioned they are gaming out scenarios.
Gas:
European Union countries have increased their imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia compared with before the Ukraine war, despite the EU’s aim to quit Russian fossil fuels within a few years, an analysis by campaigners showed. Source.
China: they’re relying on so-called “dual use” items: drones to spy and drop munitions, night-vision goggles for snipers, “sports equipment” that’s actually bulletproof vests and helmets, that kind of thing. They’re also supplying “spare parts” that can be used to repair or even assemble military equipment from scratch.
And LNG is just a fraction of the total gas import and not representative.
