Russia has officially announced a naval blockade on Ukraine, to start 00.00 20/07/23.
“In connection with the cessation of the functioning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the сlosing of the maritime humanitarian corridor, from 00.00 Moscow time on 20 July 2023, all vessels sailing in the waters of the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo,” reads a message the MoD issued on the social messaging platform Telegram. “Accordingly, the countries of such vessels will be considered to be involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime.”
In my view this is a desperate escalation from Russia and only serves to project their weakness. Despite what the media says, I don’t think this is a retaliation to the latest damage to the Kerch Bridge as the strike was conducted between both the VKS and Navy and would have taken more time to plan such an operation. This was pre-planned, they were never going to re-negotiate the BSGI.
Given that Türkiye has supported Black Sea shipping previously by escorting ships through the passage, thisay be the outcome. And against that Russia can do nothing without putting themselves at risk of international intervention, which I’m sure we all agree will not end well for them. But such an act may require UN Charter to ensure actual international support and backing.
The other option would be for Türkiye to simply close the Strait, which they are perfectly well within their rights to do. Effectively blockading the blockade. The only nations that will be significantly affected are those that are Russian or Russian aligned. Everyone else will be able to reroute via land routes (granted at extra expense and time).
What will this mean for the world? Prices increasing yet more for our food items.
Rather short sightedly, China and other BRICS nations are a significant consumer of Ukrainian grain, so I assume that they won’t be too pleased at this.
In a completely unrelated note Putin has decided not to show up to the BRICS summit where China and those aforementioned other nations are going to be present.
All eyes will be on Turkey with this move. They can escort ships in/out of the corridor they support with a massive article 5 flag waving.
An angle that I didn’t consider at the time of my post was China.
They could use this as an opportunity to look good on the world stage by sending some ships over to escort the shipments.
Russia wouldn’t dare attack them, China looks good and protects their self interests and their navy get some invaluable and greatly needed experience on long distance missions.
Turkey has enacted a treaty which forbids additional warships in the region unless they are returning to their home port. China also is very limited in their blue water navy - they’re working on this, though, and should have deep water ports and logistics in Africa over time.
It’s a limit to warship size/quantity, not a blanket ban on warships unless Türkiye close the Strait; which they haven’t yet.
For example, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Black_Sea_incident Which involved a Dutch and British navy destroyer.
China may not have many blue water vessels, but they do have them, including carriers. While the carriers can’t transit the strait (unless they call them cruisers, which the could since one is an ex Kirov class and the other is direct copy), they have enough vessels that support them in frigates, destroyers and such. All they need is one.
Turkey has already enacted https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits regarding the current conflict. The only military vessels allowed in are those returning to their home ports.